Pick of the Day: Adrian Mannarino vs. Andrey Rublev, Shanghai

There are a lot of great matches in this round of the Rolex Shanghai Masters, but the meeting between Adrian Mannarino and Andrey Rublev is one I’m particularly interested in.

On paper, this might look like a match that Rublev should easily win. But Mannarino has won eight matches in a row, and he won a title in Astana last week. Mannarino didn’t play the best competition in that tournament, but he did earn a tight three-set win over Sebastian Korda in the finals. And I think he’ll turn in another good performance here.

Mannarino obviously doesn’t have the same amount of firepower as Rublev, but the 35-year-old is a sturdier baseline player. He’s going to absorb Rublev’s pace and just put a lot of balls in play, which could force some unforced errors out of the Russian. Mannarino has also just been remarkable as a returner this year. His break percentage is a career-high 26.3% this season, which should play a role in this match at some point. Rublev can occasionally get loose with his service games, and he’d be flirting with danger if he does that against Mannarino here.

It's also worth noting that Rublev isn’t exactly playing his best tennis right now. The Russian is just 6-6 in his last 12 matches, and he hasn’t had many extended runs since returning to hard-court tennis in August.

With that in mind, I love this spot for a red-hot Mannarino. It’s never a bad thing when you’re backing a scorching hot player against one that isn’t at their absolute best. So, I’m taking Mannarino to win a set at plus-money odds. And I’m also putting a quarter of a unit on the moneyline.

Bet: Mannarino +1.5 Sets (+105) & Mannarino To Win (+260 – 0.25 units)